Frequently asked questions

For routes with enough observed history, an ensemble approach combines the recent price trend (damped so it doesn't over-extrapolate), weekly seasonality (some weekdays consistently price lower), and the booking curve (fares typically rise sharply inside ~21 days of departure). With limited data, a simpler rule-based method is used instead and is clearly marked with lower confidence.

Confidence reflects how much price history we have for the route, how volatile it is, and how far away departure is. 75–100% is labelled High, 50–74% Moderate, and below 50% Low. Click “Why this confidence?” on any prediction to see the specific reasons.

Never. Every forecast is an estimate with a stated range and confidence. Airlines reprice constantly, and events we can't see (fuel costs, capacity changes, sales) move fares. Treat the prediction as informed guidance, not a promise.

The rules are transparent: Buy Now fires when departure is very close, the fare is well below the route's average, or a confident rise is predicted. Wait fires when a meaningful drop is predicted with enough confidence and time. Monitor means the data is too thin or volatile to make a strong call.

FareBull has a provider abstraction. With credentials configured (Travelpayouts/Aviasales), searches return real recent fares labelled “Cached fares” — final prices are confirmed on the booking site. Without credentials, a deterministic simulated provider generates realistic fares, and every simulated result carries a “Demo data” badge so it can never be mistaken for live pricing.

Even live cached fares can lag airline websites by minutes to hours, and airlines show personalized or point-of-sale-specific prices. Always confirm the final price on the booking site.

In production, fares are observed on a schedule and stored per route, date, and cabin. In demo mode, history is generated deterministically so charts and predictions are stable and reproducible.

Only for saving trips and setting alerts. Searching, charts, predictions, comparisons, and the flexible date calendar all work signed out.

Six: price below a target, percentage drop, buy-now signal, confidence above a level, nonstop available under a price, and a specific airline under a price. Alerts can be paused, resumed, or deleted anytime.

Email notifications are on the roadmap. Right now your email-alert preference is recorded, and triggered alerts are shown on the Alerts page and dashboard when you visit.

Not directly — FareBull is a tracking and prediction tool. The “Book” button opens a flight search on a partner site (Aviasales) where you complete the purchase. FareBull may earn an affiliate commission on those bookings at no extra cost to you.

Patterns vary by route, but domestic fares are often cheapest 1–3 months out and international 2–6 months out, with prices climbing steeply in the final three weeks. FareBull's per-route booking window is more specific than any rule of thumb.